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political world

Brexit. And What?

jan marek chodakiewicz|Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Great Britain has elected to leave the European Union. The British lion has roared for the first time since Margaret Thatcher. Three cheers for the principle of sovereignty. Vivat self-government! Most of the Britons, indeed all those who identify primarily as “British,” were sick and tired of a regime that appropriated the most basic functions of their democracy and deluged their nation with annoying, asinine, and totalitarian rules and regulations made in Brussels by unelected bureaucrats. They also refused to be treated as an undifferentiated “European” blob. Their identity is British, don’t you forget it, even if they usually treat “British” synonymously with “English.”

” There will be more than a few problems with Brexit. First, the deal is not done until is approved by the Parliament. And the powers that be will do everything to reverse the will of the British people. The Eurocrats will stall, horse-trade, back slap back bench deals,  latch onto a technicality, and advocate a repetition of the vote just as they did following several referenda on crucial EU issues in Ireland, France, Denmark, and the Netherlands. As an EU politician once said: “They will vote until they get it right.” Elated by their initial victory, the “nay” voters would become discouraged and demobilized upon hearing that the process would have to be repeated. The second or third time around there would be less or no interest. And the EU side would trumpet its victory. Will this eyrie scenario by attrition repeat itself in the UK now? David Cameron has resigned as prime minister. Phony Conservatives are out, right? He will be replaced by a second tier of CINOs (the equivalent of our RINOs). Plus he still remains in the parliament where, along with other phony Tories, you bet, he will work assiduously to undo the Brexit. If there is a snap election, it will not be Nigel Farage’s UKIP who will form the government but most likely Labour. And that party is even more Europhoric than CINOs. So the Brexit deal is not done yet. But suppose a miracle happens, and the nefarious anti-Brexit machinations are defeated. What then? Will the rest of the EU catch a freedom bug from the Brits? Will the Dutch and the Danes follow? Even if they do not leave, they should certainly explore the beauties of sovereignty within the EU: no longer a superstate, but a free market European zone of nations. That would be a much needed return to the libertarian-conservative spirit of the Mount Pelerin Society as envisioned by Frederich von Hayek and Erik von Kuehnelt-Leddihn as a foundation of Europe of freely associated nation states, which was, alas, overcome by the demons of French étatisme of Jean Monet and Robert Schuman, who came to dominate the increasingly totalitarian Brussels project. Will the spirit of decentralization descend onto central and eastern Europe? That probably won’t happen right away because the denizens of the post-Soviet zone are too scared of the Russians to leave the imaginary security blanket of the EU behind. They keep forgetting that it is not the EU, but NATO that defends them. And there is no NATO without American leadership. Geopolitically, we are looking at a paradigm shift. The pro-American, Transatlantic block within the EU consisting of Great Britain on the western wing and Poland and her neighbors on the eastern march is no more. With London gone, Berlin will have realized its dream of European domination, something we denied it in two world wars. And we may be faced with a nightmare scenario: Festung (Fortress) Europa in bed with Russia and China against the U.S. This does not have to pass if America provides strong leadership, in particular through NATO.  “To keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down” continues as a sound British foreign policy objective, indeed an objective for us all as articulated half a century ago by Lord Hastings Ismay. The United Kingdom has elected to reembrace its splendid isolation. It will necessarily draw closer to the United States. That means that Washington will have to drag London to become involved in European affairs rather than the other way around. Yet, if the Obama doctrine of cozying up to Brussels and ignoring our historical allies continues under President Hillary Clinton, who will want the British here? Will the British want the British? Scottish nationalists have already made noises that they wish to remain in the EU. They vow another referendum. If they win, will they take Scotland out of the UK? How is that going to work out? A disunited United Kingdom? What kind of an ally will that be? Without America Brexit creates a serious geopolitical challenge. With the U.S. at the helm, Brexit is a step in the right direction.
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